WHY DEE WHY?

| Date:9 November 2009

Gone are the days where most of us used to walk around Dee Why in our boardies and thongs. Seems these days many more of us are swanning around in our best designer clothes in what is now the new uber chic Dee Why!

Dee Why has done a huge about face in the past 5 years where it once was somewhat of an untidy borderline daggy kind of neighbourhood to what it is being transformed into now.

So, why the change?

In the past 5 years Dee Why has come ahead in leaps and bounds and it seems it is now the “in” place to live.

You’d have to be living in a bubble to not notice that Dee Why is located in an irreplaceable position, with many residential streets being just a hop, skip and a jump to the world famous Dee Why Beach, Manly Beach & beyond.

Loads of luxury, state of the art apartments are going up in the area which is encouraging a slightly more mature, asset rich demographic. On the other end of the scale it appears that Dee Why is now made up of a young, trendy population with 40% between the ages of 20-39 years of age. The majority of these young inhabitants seem to enjoy a rather sizeable income and many own their own property within the area. This is a real family suburb with the benefit of having a surf beach right at the front door.

One would never go hungry in Dee Why with some 46 restaurants, cafes and bars many overlooking the beach where you can grab anything from Pizza to Indian spices, there is something for everyone! With all the new developing going on in Dee Why there has been a huge increase in the number of eateries with one trendier than the next. Been to Dee Why Market Place yet???

There is a ton of sporting clubs including rugby clubs, golf clubs and of course surf clubs together with some incredible child care facilities many of them brand spanking new.

A sensational mix of shops, 280 shops to be specific, including trendy boutiques and availability to your everyday items makes Dee Why a highly desirable place to grab a dress, get your hair done or jump in to the gym.

It’s seriously central location means that you can hop on a bus and be in the CBD within a half an hour or catch a ferry from Manly Beach, just moments away.

Just walking through the streets you’d be blind to not notice just how mutli cultural Dee Why is. The fabulous mixture of races and religions introduces a wonderful flavour to Dee Why where many nationalities live together in a peaceful, safe & harmonious environment.

Of course last but not least…Dee Why is home to The Novak Agency! We’d like to think that we set the benchmark for Dee Why now being as cool and trendy as what it is….however I think we’ll have to bow down to the many developers that saw the potential in this little piece of paradise….

The Great Recovery

The Great Recovery – Sharemarket trends

•    More than half a trillion dollars has been added to the capitalisation of the Australian sharemarket since March. Market cap currently stands at just over $1.4 trillion.

•    While the value of sharemarket has lifted almost 60 per cent since the March lows, it has also become more concentrated with almost half capitalisation held in banks and resources. And just over a third of sharemarket value is held in just six stocks – ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.
The Great Recovery

•    We have had the Great Depression. And in some advanced countries the recent economic downturn has been termed the Great Recession. But more positively – and in the same vein – the strong, swift recovery of the sharemarket since March could aptly be described as the Great Recovery.

•    The value of shares on the Australian sharemarket currently stands at just over $1.4 trillion ($1404.7 billion). Since March 9, market capitalisation has lifted by over half a trillion dollars ($519.4 billion) or a gain of 58.7 per cent.

•    There is still some work to reach the highs set on November 1 2007 but it looks far more achievable than appeared the case just seven months ago. Sharemarket capitalisation needs to rise by almost 25 per cent to reach record levels.

•    Certainly the fall from grace for the Australian sharemarket was remarkable. Between November 2007 and March 2009 the value of shares on the Australian sharemarket almost halved, falling by just over $847 billion or 48.9 per cent. But since, just over $500 billion of the paper loss has been recovered with just over $300 billion to go.
With recovery comes concentration

•    The recovery of the sharemarket appears remarkable, but not if you consider the performance of the economy. If an economy grows, it will be reflected in sales, profitability and therefore in the size and value of Australian companies. The Australian economy avoided recession and is now accelerating out of a slowdown. The Reserve Bank certainly expects the economy to gain pace over the coming year as reflected by the recent decision to lift interest rates.

•    In essence the sharp decline in the value of the sharemarket was unwarranted as the Australian economy failed to follow other economies into recession.

•    The main problem is that the dollars flooding back into the sharemarket have tended to flow to the main banks and resource companies.

•    Currently three of the 19 sub-sectors account for almost half the capitalisation of the sharemarket. The S&P/ASX 200 sub-sectors – Banks, Materials & Energy – account for just over 48 per cent of sharemarket capitalisation, up from just over 39 per cent at the start of 2007.

•    In fact just six stocks account for over a third of the capitalisation of the entire sharemarket – ANZ, NAB, CBA, Westpac, BHP-Billiton and Rio Tinto. Capitalisation of these six stocks has soared by $228 billion from the lows recorded late last year.

•    If the shift of funds into the ‘Super Six’ companies just represents a shift into large, safe-haven companies at the start of the sharemarket recovery then there are few long-term implications. As the recovery matures and consolidates, investors should feel more comfortable to embrace small and medium-sized companies, leading to less concentration of sharemarket value in a small number of companies.

•    However if sharemarket value continues to be concentrated into the top stocks then key indices such as the ASX 200 and All Ordinaries will be far less representative. It is important that investors are aware of the power that the ‘Super Six’ companies exert.
Have investors become too exuberant?

•    The sharemarket has rebounded a long way in a short time period. As a result, this raises the question about whether investors have become too exuberant. And in this respect an interesting dichotomy has developed. The forward price-earnings ratio, measuring share prices against earnings forecasts stands at 17.82, well above the decade average of 16.09. However the lagged PE measure, comparing actual share prices against actual earnings, stands at 14.7, below the decade-average of 15.4.

•    Which measure is right? Analysts were pleasantly surprised by the resilience of earnings in the latest reporting season and many have sought to upgrade forecasts. But it is probably fair to say that analysts still harbour doubts. So the upgrade path still has further to go.

•    The lagged PE measure requires no adjustment of views, so in the current environment it is arguably the more accurate valuation measure. The bottom-line being that the market is neither super-cheap nor expensive. If companies continue to offer positive guidance about earnings, then the sharemarket will continue to track higher, however at a more modest pace than has been the case to date.

•    CommSec expects the sharemarket to end the year around 5,000 points and lift to 5,300 points by mid 2010.

Source Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec

LANDLORDS LET’S PARTY!!!!!!!

Yep! Looks as though the planets are finally aligning for all you investors out there with rental returns looking mighty fine. C’mon it’s your turn to celebrate!

Our mates at AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY MONITORS recently reported that gross rental returns had either remained steady or slightly increased.

Now, normally one would have thought that our heavily reduced variable interest rates might have released the pressure on rents. Well, apparently not so.

As it turns out, rental vacancy rates are still extremely low. Particularly in Sydney. The September “Rental Vacancy Report” by the REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF NSW asserts that Sydney has a rental vacancy rate of just 1.3%. In fact, for the vast majority of NSW (including regional centres) the rate sits below 2%!!!

Here’s the good news – it seems that property investors will not need to drop rents to attract tenants in this environment.

Recently published population projections by the NSW GOVERNMENT show that NSW will grow by 372,600 people in 5 years. That is a touch over 1,433 people per week.

The NSW Govt. also estimates that 187,300 dwellings will need to be built during this period – 720 new dwellings every week! Compare this to the number of building commencements last financial year of 457 per week (Source: ABS) and you will no doubt see a problem looming. An estimated shortfall of 263 new dwellings every week (13,600 per annum).

Another reason for property investors to party will be the end of the first home buyers grant “Boost” on the 31st of December this year.

Whilst this boost enabled more people to get into their own home for the first time, it also scared off many investors. It seems many prospective investors will be waiting until the first home buyers’ have completed their feeding frenzy. That day approaches.

The good news for investors is that median rental yields have been building over the last five years. Every capital city in Australia now exceeds 4% p.a. and the housing shortage should support this position.

Go on investors…let your hair down, throw on your dancing shoes and strike a pose….it’s your turn now to have some fun!

BACK A WINNER…CALL 1300 4 NOVAK.

| Date:26 October 2009

Frocks, frills, feathers and fascinators will be donned next Tuesday for the so called race that stops the nation – The Melbourne cup race.

This is the time of year when we all become gamblers of a sort and pretty much everyone becomes either a bookie or an expert on racing tips, each with ‘the tip’ that is the sure winner.

This week we’ve dug deep to compile some info on cup day to see what it truly is all about and where the Melbourne Cup Day came from. We figured there surely had to more to Melbourne Cup than fancy hats, bright frocks and copious amounts of champas.

Melbourne Cup Day is Australia’s most famous Tuesday.

It’s a day when the nation stops whatever it’s doing to listen to the race. Even those who don’t usually bet, try their luck with a small wager or entry into a ’sweep’ – a lottery in which each ticket-holder is matched with a randomly drawn horse.

Since 1877, Cup Day has been a public holiday for Melbourne, and crowds have flocked to the track. The party atmosphere often means that champagne and canapés, huge hats and racetrack fashions overshadow the business of horse racing.

The Melbourne Cup has long been known as an urban fashion parade. The race track was one of the few places in colonial Australia where high society and the lower classes came together socially. The first Australian race meet, held in 1810, established the culture of the Melbourne Cup and was organised in Sydney by Governor Macquarie as part of a plan to improve the cultural life of Sydney.

The first Melbourne Cup was run in 1861 at Flemington Race Course and was won by Archer, a horse from Nowra, New South Wales, beating the local favourite, Mormon. The prize was a gold watch and £170. Dismissed by the bookies, Archer took a lot of money away from Melbourne, ‘refuelling interstate rivalry’ and adding to the excitement of the Cup.

In the late 1880s and 1890s, Carbine dominated the racing scene, and carried the greatest winning weight ever in a Melbourne Cup. For over a century, only two horses had won the Melbourne Cup twice: Archer (1861, 1862) and Peter Pan (1932, 1934). However, Makybe Diva won three Melbourne Cups between 2003 and 2005.

Phar Lap is perhaps Australia’s most famous racehorse, combining stamina and speed. Phar Lap’s big heart now resides at the National Museum of Australia. Phar Lap’s heart was remarkable for its size, weighing about 6.2 kg, compared with a normal horse’s heart at 3.2 kg.

Good luck for cup day and if you really want to back a winner and see a fabulous return for your money then our best tip is to call us.

THE NOVAK AGENCY REPORTS – HOUSE PRICES SET TO GO BANANAS!!!

| Date:19 October 2009

Yep! Just in case you haven’t noticed, house prices are hotting up.

The price of your home is rising, and it’s going to keep rising – by at least 5 per cent a year – for the next five years.

That’s a forecast from ANZ Bank economist Paul Braddick, who this time 12 months ago did the bravest thing an economist can do: he broke with the pack.

As head of property research at ANZ, Braddick went around the country giving a presentation with a sensational slide show, called ’’The Mother of all Housing Booms’’, where he argued house prices could only go up.

This, I might remind you, was during the depths of the Global Financial Crisis (G.F.C – so 2009!) when his peers at NAB, Commonwealth Bank and Macquarie – not to mention some very vocal academics in universities – were pronouncing doom for house prices.

One commentator – Steve Keen, an associate professor at the University of Western Sydney – said house prices would drop 40 per cent and then went so far as to sell his Sydney residence to show the world he was not just trying to make the headlines.

Braddick, meanwhile, motored on, getting more ridicule than headlines. He told all who would listen that prices had ’’upward pressure’’ because – very simply – there were more people than dwellings.

It is now clear that Braddick was also facing opposing views ’’upstairs’’ at his own bank.

’’We were getting it from all angles,’’ he explains, ’’but I kept looking at the figures and they spoke for themselves – we did not have enough houses coming on stream; supply was not going to match demand.”

It is now clear that Braddick and his few followers – mostly real estate agents desperate to hear his positive view – were right and the doomsayers were wrong.

Here are the facts. Australian average house prices have risen 7.7 per cent in the year to date. (In Melbourne the figure rises to 11 per cent.)

In the statement from the RBA that accompanied the 0.25 percentage point rate rise, our central bankers drily opined: “Housing credit growth has been solid and house prices have risen appreciably over the last six months.’’

Freed from the rigours of ’’central bank speak’’, governor Glenn Stevens might have said: “Believe it or not, banks have been giving loans to home buyers and, blow me over with a feather, house prices have defied global trends and gone up …’’

Braddick, who can speak both central bank speak and English, is not surprised: “We had two key reasons for our position – we believed that Australia was completely different to America where there was this historic housing slump, and, crucially, we believed – and still believe – there is a housing shortage.”

The first point now seems achingly obvious: we never had cheap housing loans, we never had loans where the borrower had no responsibility. We did not deserve a US-style slump. The number of people not paying their mortgages in the US at its worst reached 15 per cent – 10 times higher than our comparative figure.

But it’s the second point that matters – and it’s on this issue Braddick and a growing number of commentators are basing renewed optimism for house prices.

Braddick has always maintained that the lack of new home building in our bigger cities would ensure rents and house prices stay high.

Considering the size of our population, about 6500 more houses should be built each month.

And even if you assume the economic model behind this estimate is flawed – maybe the two-decade-long trend of fewer people per home has turned – it has not turned that much. If Braddick is even half right, we have 60,000 houses across the country that must be built in the next five years.

The problem now looming is that a lot of the home builders are fully occupied extending or rebuilding your local school as part of the Rudd stimulus package.

House prices ARE going back up again – it’s not good news for everyone, but as an alternative to a G.F.C, I wouldn’t swap it. Check out The Novak Agencies fabulous homes for sale on our site…you’d be mad if you didn’t!

FINALISTS 4 REINSW LARGE AGENCY OF THE YEAR + FINALISTS MANLY DAILY BUSINESS ACHIEVER AWARDS!!!

| Date:12 October 2009

No. It’s not luck or good fortune nor is it just our ’turn’…we see it as recognition for fact that ’we never sleep’, the fact that we work 7 days a week, the fact that we do 3 open homes a week (incl. Saturday and YES even Sunday!) and the fact that we ARE different to any other agency out there (seen our window?).

The Novak Agency was one of only four agencies across New South Wales to be awarded as a finalist for the Real Estate Institute of NSW’s Awards for Excellence.

As if that accomplishment alone wasn’t enough, we have also been voted by the general public as finalists for The Manly Daily Business Achiever Awards.

We are proud to be recognised for the outstanding services that we offer. Much hard work and complete devotion goes into all that we do, from our faultless customer service, where we offer around the clock assistance (we never sleep), to our sensational staff who are all hand picked and clearly the finest in the industry. Our extensive marketing is both highly visual and entertaining, in fact last year we took out Website of the Year. Our marketing is distinct and unlike any other agency.

Come in and see for yourself why we are so highly awarded and nominated. We’re the glamorous looking office on Pittwater Road that doesn’t look like a Real Estate Agency.

Come in for a coffee (a real one of course!),and a chat and allow us to knock your socks off!

In the meantime, browse our award winning website.

Reserve Bank lifts interest rates to 3.25 per cent

By Edmund Tadros

news.com.au

October 06, 2009 02:30pm

The Reserve Bank has increased its official cash rate to 3.25 per cent. Graphic: news.com.au / Eric Auld

THE Reserve Bank has lifted its official interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent.

This marks the first time since April that the central bank has increased its rate.

The market had priced in better-than-even odds that the rate would be increased today after strong ANZ job ads figures were released yesterday.

A 25 basis point increase to the official rate adds about $45 a month to a $300,000, 25-year home, according to comparison website RateCity.

Australia is now the second country in the world, after Israel, to begin tightening its monetary policy.

Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has called Australia’s 3 per cent official cash rate an “emergency” level rate.

This is likely to be the first of many increases that the Reserve Bank will make as the economy continues to recover.

One leading economist is predicting that the official cash rate is likely to rise to four or 4.5 per cent by the end of next year.

The global financial crisis was “almost if not completely over”‘, and most parts of the economy no longer needed the support of very low interest rates, Grattan Institute economist Saul Eslake said earlier today.

If rates were left too low for too long, it could fuel a bubble in housing prices, he told ABC News.

Cities of dreams as value of homes begins to soar

Date: October 6, 2009

Clearly Sydney and Melbourne are leading the property market recovery and now represent two of the nation’s most popular markets.

RP Data’s national home value indices published last week reveal that for the first eight months of the year Sydney home values rose 8.6 per cent, to reach a new median value of $546,867.

Melbourne also put in a stellar performance and has found its feet again to record a stunning 11.6 per cent price increase, bringing the median value up to $467,280.

These buoyant conditions are in stark contrast to the same period last year, when values were falling, sales volumes were at rock bottom and only 45 per cent of auctions were clearing.

Now we are seeing house values rising, market activity increasing, and almost three-quarters of auctions are recording a successful result.

While the sceptics have touted this as a potential market bubble waiting to burst, the figures confirm that the residential market is protected from a downturn in values by a broad range of factors.

Interest rates are at historic lows and — although rates will be lifted over the coming months — we will need to see a rise of 150 basis points before mortgage rates reach their 10-year average of 7.3 per cent.

Importantly, housing is in undersupply and the nation’s population is growing at a faster rate than in any other country in the Western world.

Australian development is being underpinned by the fastest rate of population growth since the baby boomers.

Other factors such as the health of the financial sector and lower-than-expected unemployment figures are also likely to support the housing market.

Over the next six months capital growth is likely to moderate across the Australian market.

Interest rate rises, together with a winding back of the boost to the first-home owners’ grant, are likely to dampen demand.

Tim Lawless is the national research director of rpdata.com.

Source: The Sun-Herald

WISH US LUCK 4 SATURDAY…WILL WE WIN AGENCY OF THE YEAR?

| Date:6 October 2009

Saturday night…..do do do do do do do…..Saturday night…..do do do do do do do do……!!!!

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh…Real Estate’s night of nights is this coming Saturday night when the whos who of the industry will frock up, hob nob and celebrate each others achievements.

We are up for Large Residential Agency of the Year. Yep! One of only four finalists. This in itself is a massive achievement and to be completely honest we are thrilled to have come this far. Taking out the big title would certainly be the cherry on top.

We would like to wish all finalists the very best of luck for Saturday Night and we will keep our fingers and toes very tightly crossed until we hear the words “….and the winner for Real Estate Agency of the Year goes to ??????????????”….

NOVAK ‘GET DAYS ON MARKET’ STATS IN MANLY DAILY